![]() ![]() Producing, say, 200 rockets in a year is still impressive and milestones like this will likely come first. This also doesn't mean that the company won't have an impressive ramp. I think this provides ample time for the company to iron out their kinks and develop their Model T-esque assembly process. Realistically, I would expect a daily output to be reached in 2027 or 2028. Additionally, just because the company is delayed, doesn't mean it will never be accomplished. While achieving a high launch frequency is part of this flexibility, most of it comes down to their highly modular launch system design. As will be discussed more below, the company's flexibility is more important to its business plan than launch frequency. ![]() Fortunately, I do not see this failure as proving fatal. While the fact that the company has a pretty conservative management team, especially compared to other space companies (I'm looking at you SpaceX and Virgin Galactic ( SPCE)), does ease concerns a bit, I still have my doubts. The company does have a fairly tapered ramp process but I still feel that they will be delayed in reaching their goals. But when you're making something as complex and with minimal room for failure as Astra plans to, there will undoubtedly be kinks to work out. Regardless of what it is, mass production is hard. To reach their goals, everything has to go to plan and, unfortunately, I have my doubts that it will. This is what I believe is the shakiest part of the company's goals. The company has already demonstrated all other capabilities, but manufacturing a rocket a day is an ambitious goal. This second expansion is what will determine the feasibility of Astra's plans. This expansion is expected to take until early 2024 to complete. In 2022, Astra will begin their second phase that will provide the company the capabilities to reach daily launch capabilities. The company's production facility is expected to complete construction by the end of the year, however this is just the first stage. Ultimately bringing down the cost of their product, Astra refers to this as "A 'Model T' for the space industry." To achieve this, the company plans to adopt a process of heavy automation. The ultimate goal of the company is to reach an output of about one rocket per day, something that has never been attempted by a rocket manufacturer. One way Astra plans to be able to do this is through the rapid manufacturing of new rockets at their production facility. If Astra wants to do so, they'll have to move fast. No one has ever come close to meeting this incredibly demanding flight list. By 2024, Astra expects 165 launches, and in 2025 almost daily. ![]() This would line the company up for 15 launches in 2022, which it would then aim to increase to a weekly basis in 2023. The company plans to conduct three launches this year with the capability to launch on a monthly basis by the year's close. The company doesn't plan to rest on its laurels though, shooting for a rapid increase in their launch schedule through 2025. This impressive feat speaks volumes to the company's highly capable management team and intelligence of the personnel. All of this was done with far less than half of the funds of any of its closest competitors, in some cases just a tenth. Despite moving quickly, Astra has already racked up over ten customers over five of the company's customers are different governments, including the United States. Another important thing to note is the quality of the company's product. For reference, SpaceX ( SPACE), the first private company to reach space, took two and a half years longer with five times the staff. Founded in October 2016, it took the company just over four years to bring their first rocket to space. One of the things that stands out in Astra's profile is the company's incredible rate of progress. This article aims to frame the key components of both pieces into a bullish investment thesis for Astra by examining the company's growth rate and the market it plans to operate in. The company targets small satellite launches, a rapidly growing market that is often overlooked because it's simply not as exciting. Furthermore, the company's recent Investor Day, held on April 14, provided additional detail of the company's plans. The company's investment presentation provides tremendous insight into the company's current financial standing and plans for future operations. On February 2, Astra announced their intentions to list on the public market via SPAC Holicity ( HOL). Photo by Alexyz3d/iStock via Getty Images ![]()
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